Saturday, June 11, 2016

predicting CE

Leonardo Egidi writes:
Inspired by your world cup model I fitted in Stan a model for the Euro Cup which start today, with two Poisson distributions for the goals scored at every match by the two teams (perfect prediction for the first match!).
Here’s the model, and here are the (point) predictions:

I didn’t look at the model but at first glance I think the priors are a bit vague. Maybe it doesn’t really matter, though. Anyway, I’m glad to see that France will make it to the semifinals. (I root for France whenever the U.S. and Guatemala aren’t in the picture.)
Maybe Leo can also send along the Stan code and the data?


моя поп роще:
Англия-РФ ничья (1-1, очки)
Уэльс-Словакия ничья (1-1)
Россия-Словакия 0-3 (это очки, не голы)
Англия-Уэльс 3-0
Россия-Уэльс ничья (1-1)
Англия-Словакия ничья (1-1)


Англия 5
Словакия 5
РФ 2
Уэльс 2

больше прогнозов: хороших и разных

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